When a new technology or idea emerges, we often see four stages. These are part of the Gartner Hype cycle.
Initially, we have the “trigger,” when the idea emerges and the hype starts. It catches a lot of us off guard…
Then comes the peak of inflated expectations which follows soon after. Typically, we see main-stream media, your Auntie Mary’s friend Rob, and print media talking about it in here…
Then, inevitably comes the trough of disillusionment: “Hey, this is nowhere near as good as they said…” Here, many will abandon the idea or trend completely.
Finally, we rise a little again into the plateau of productivity, as the idea is embraced in the long term and we understand the value that it has.
Two of the really interesting spots are the early peak, and then the following trough. We have an emotional high of the mainstream, followed by an emotional low – and neither one reflects the true value of the idea.
Both positions are reflections of crowd behaviour more than the merit of the idea.
So the question is, when you look around, is everyone talking about it?
The “new” idea you have, that thing we “must” buy?
If it’s everywhere, you’re probably right in the hype cycle, and it may be time to hold on.
