We’re currently in a position where both the basic reproductive number and the effective reproductive rate of a relatively new, unknown virus is high enough that there’s a good chance it’ll spread more.
These terms indicate the number of people that each person is likely to infect going forward. So if the effective reproductive rate is 2, each infected person will infect two more.
If it’s below 1, then it starts to fizzle out.
With our current virus, they are putting it somewhere between 1.4-3.9. The range is big (not clear), because it’s new, testing is not effective, and because measures are being taken which shifts the number.
These reproductive numbers depend on a few things – of course the nature and structure of the virus, but also our habits and patterns as a culture.
In China, a significant lockdown on social interaction seems to have shifted the reproductive rates down dramatically.
Regardless of what else you want to compare this to, or your bias on the medical industry or other factors, basic maths indicates that with the current rates we’ll probably be affected by the virus in some way – someone we know, a friend, someone in the community…
And, regardless of where the outcome ends up, it’s likely we can agree that’s not ideal.
So, bringing attention to it all and adjusting our patterns seems to makes sense for a few reasons:
- By changing our patterns, we can drop the effective reproductive rates significantly.
- Changing patterns means taking responsibility for removing ways for the virus to spread. If it’s a computer virus, you don’t open emails, you take it offline etc… In this case, you reduce close group exposure and unnecessary human contact.
- Slowing or curbing the spread of any virus is helpful – it “flattens” the curve, or reduces the rate of spread, which relieves stress on infrastructure and allows more time for mental, physical and social adaptability.
- It’s an assymetric trade – in some cases, there’s an economic trade off. In many cases though, there’s not. Many people can choose to adjust their social exposure for a while with no downside.
- Your paying it forward. By taking responsibility of your actions, it’s not just you who is impacted. It’s anyone who you may be in contact with.
While over the top alarm isn’t helpful in most cases, presence and attention is.
And when we pay attention and notice a trade that has limited downside and clear potential upside, it’s likely worth the self-leadership to take action.
